RKC Waalwijk 3-1 Vitesse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 30 Oct 2024

📅30/10/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
31%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.31
2-3 Goals
34%
1.88
4-5 Goals
26%
2.98
6+ Goals
15%
9.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.22
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1 EV+ ✗
24%
4.21
X/2
10%
9.05
X/X
8%
5.69
2/1
6%
21.3
2/2
15%
6.41
2/X
9%
14.6
Value flag · X/1 at 4.21 — our 24% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
31%
Away Win
23%
+8.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.7pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitesse EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
6.19/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/2.57
+134% / +83% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -42%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
390 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
Crosses 14.8
Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Vitesse
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.30 xG 1.49
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
266 Passes 393
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.03.2024 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-1 HT 1-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
16.09.2023 Vitesse Vitesse 0-2 HT 0-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
01.04.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
27.08.2022 Vitesse Vitesse 2-2 HT 0-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
20.03.2022 Vitesse Vitesse 1-2 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
12.09.2021 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-2 HT 1-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
3-1
AWAY Vitesse
2.08 xG 1.87
41% Ball Possession 59%
18 Total Shots 21
9 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 9
291 Passes 440
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 33
9 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs Vitesse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RKC Waalwijk saw off Vitesse 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had RKC Waalwijk as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 41% of the ball to Vitesse's 59%, shots finished 18-21, expected goals 2.08 to 1.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RKC Waalwijk had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 1.00 for Vitesse.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs Vitesse?

RKC Waalwijk 3-1 Vitesse in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs Vitesse?

Before kick-off our model rated a RKC Waalwijk win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 45%, draw 23%, Vitesse 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RKC Waalwijk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RKC Waalwijk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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