AIK 3-1 Örebro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Cup, 18 Feb 2024

AIK
3-1 HT 1-1
Örebro
📅18/02/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.33
Draw
28%
4.49
Away
22%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.95
Over 2.5
42%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.5
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.34
6+ Goals
9%
12.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 35% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
70%
-20.6pp
28%
Draw
19%
+9.2pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+11.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
48%
+10.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-10.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.9pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AIK EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Örebro EU Bookmakers 14%
-8% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.87/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.25
-24% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +91%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
388 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AIK
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Örebro
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.64 xG 1.08
57% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
433 Passes 272
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.03.2022 AIK AIK 1-1 HT 1-0 Örebro Örebro İSÇK
28.08.2021 AIK AIK 2-0 HT 2-0 Örebro Örebro İSÇ
26.07.2021 Örebro Örebro 1-1 HT 1-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
22.11.2020 AIK AIK 0-2 HT 0-1 Örebro Örebro İSÇ
14.06.2020 Örebro Örebro 0-2 HT 0-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
05.10.2019 AIK AIK 2-0 HT 0-0 Örebro Örebro İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AIK
3-1
AWAY Örebro
56% Ball Possession 44%
21 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AIK vs Örebro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AIK beat Örebro 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had AIK as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AIK had 56% of the ball to Örebro's 44%, shots finished 21-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AIK had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for AIK and 0.67 for Örebro.

What was the final score of AIK vs Örebro?

AIK 3-1 Örebro in the Sweden - Cup on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AIK vs Örebro?

Before kick-off our model rated a AIK win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split AIK 50%, draw 28%, Örebro 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AIK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AIK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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