Kalmar 3-1 Gefle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Cup, 18 Feb 2024

Kalmar
3-1 HT 1-0
Gefle
📅18/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.28
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
18%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.2
2-3 Goals
43%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
2.97
6+ Goals
9%
9.11
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
74%
-13.3pp
22%
Draw
17%
+4.8pp
18%
Away Win
9%
+8.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-1.5pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kalmar EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Gefle EU Bookmakers 12%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
2.59/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/2.52
+7% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -6%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
371 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 207 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kalmar
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Gefle
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
59% Ball Possession 41%
21 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
04.03.2017 Kalmar Kalmar 3-0 HT 1-0 Gefle Gefle İSÇK
26.10.2016 Kalmar Kalmar 0-1 HT 0-0 Gefle Gefle İSÇ
18.07.2016 Gefle Gefle 4-2 HT 2-2 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
26.10.2015 Kalmar Kalmar 3-1 HT 2-0 Gefle Gefle İSÇ
08.04.2015 Gefle Gefle 2-0 HT 2-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
25.08.2014 Kalmar Kalmar 2-1 HT 0-0 Gefle Gefle İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kalmar
3-1
AWAY Gefle
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kalmar vs Gefle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kalmar got the better of Gefle 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kalmar as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kalmar had 62% of the ball to Gefle's 38%, shots finished 17-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Kalmar and 1.50 for Gefle.

What was the final score of Kalmar vs Gefle?

Kalmar 3-1 Gefle in the Sweden - Cup on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kalmar vs Gefle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kalmar win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Kalmar 60%, draw 22%, Gefle 18%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kalmar), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kalmar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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