Hereford FC 3-2 Warrington Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 18 Feb 2025

📅18/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.49
Draw
31%
3.94
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.91
Over
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.25
2-3
39%
1.74
4-5
23%
3.28
6+
9%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.25 — our 29% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
62%
-17.1pp
31%
Draw
22%
+9.3pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.6pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hereford FC EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Warrington Town EU Bookmakers 19%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -12%
1.71/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.57
-7% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
389 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hereford FC
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Warrington Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
25 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
22.10.2024 Warrington Town Warrington Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
05.12.2023 Hereford FC Hereford FC 2-1 HT 1-1 Warrington Town Warrington Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hereford FC
3-2
AWAY Warrington Town
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hereford FC vs Warrington Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hereford FC edged past Warrington Town 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hereford FC as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Hereford FC had 54% of the ball to Warrington Town's 46%, shots finished 15-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hereford FC and 1.50 for Warrington Town.

What was the final score of Hereford FC vs Warrington Town?

Hereford FC 3-2 Warrington Town in the England - Conference on 18/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hereford FC vs Warrington Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hereford FC win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Hereford FC 45%, draw 31%, Warrington Town 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hereford FC), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hereford FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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