Spennymoor Town 3-1 Alfreton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 18 Feb 2025

📅18/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.78
Over
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.83
2-3
40%
1.72
4-5
20%
3.7
6+
8%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.83 — our 32% vs market 28.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spennymoor Town EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.45/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.35
-11% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spennymoor Town
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Alfreton Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
07.12.2024 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İNFAT
22.10.2024 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
12.10.2024 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town FAK
05.03.2024 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 2-1 HT 1-1 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
28.03.2023 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 3-2 HT 3-1 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
16.08.2022 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spennymoor Town
3-1
AWAY Alfreton Town
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Spennymoor Town vs Alfreton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spennymoor Town got the better of Alfreton Town 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Spennymoor Town as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Spennymoor Town had 52% of the ball to Alfreton Town's 48%, shots finished 12-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spennymoor Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Spennymoor Town and 0.83 for Alfreton Town.

What was the final score of Spennymoor Town vs Alfreton Town?

Spennymoor Town 3-1 Alfreton Town in the England - Conference on 18/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spennymoor Town vs Alfreton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spennymoor Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Spennymoor Town 42%, draw 25%, Alfreton Town 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spennymoor Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spennymoor Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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