Alfreton Town 1-0 Spennymoor Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under
56%
2.07
Over
44%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.6
No Pick
58%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
36%
4-5
22%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.7pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+12.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-12.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
58%
-16.2pp
58%
BTTS No
42%
+16.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Spennymoor Town EU Bookmakers 33%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
2.00/2.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.34
+15% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / +14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
285 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfreton Town
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Spennymoor Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
05.03.2024 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 2-1 HT 1-1 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
28.03.2023 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 3-2 HT 3-1 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
16.08.2022 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
29.01.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 3-2 HT 2-1 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
06.11.2021 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
10.10.2020 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
1-0
AWAY Spennymoor Town
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs Spennymoor Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town squeezed past Spennymoor Town 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Alfreton Town as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 38% of the ball to Spennymoor Town's 62%, shots finished 10-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alfreton Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Alfreton Town and 1.17 for Spennymoor Town.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs Spennymoor Town?

Alfreton Town 1-0 Spennymoor Town in the England - FA Cup on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs Spennymoor Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 42%, draw 24%, Spennymoor Town 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alfreton Town), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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