12/10/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-3
2nd Score
2-1
Plymouth Parkway vs Worthing Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
38%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
18%
21%
Draw
20%
50%
Away Win
62%
43%
Under 2.5
38%
57%
Over 2.5
62%
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
48%
BTTS No
44%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Plymouth Parkway v Worthing — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Plymouth Parkway
EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY
Worthing
EU Bookmakers 66%
+52% /
+52%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-21% /
-21%
1.98/0.34
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
2.00/2.00
+53%
/
+150%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-4%
/
-47%
41%
Ball Possession
59%
10
Total Shots
14
3
Shots on Target
6
5
Corners
6
284 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
464 · 86%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
1.5
Yellow Cards
0.0
POST-MATCH
Plymouth Parkway vs Worthing
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Worthing swept aside Plymouth Parkway 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Worthing as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Plymouth Parkway vs Worthing?
Plymouth Parkway 0-4 Worthing in the England - FA Cup on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Plymouth Parkway vs Worthing?
Before kick-off our model rated an Worthing win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Parkway 29%, draw 21%, Worthing 50%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Worthing), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Worthing)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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FAK
More England - FA Cup
12 Oct 2024