Institute FC 2-3 Ards FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - 1st Division, 18 Mar 2025

📅18/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.57
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
39%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.37
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.19
6+ Goals
8%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 26% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
35%
-4.1pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.2pp
39%
Away Win
39%
-0.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.2pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Institute FC EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Ards FC EU Bookmakers 43%
-9% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -27%
1.09/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.94
-36% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -26%
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
298 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Institute FC
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ards FC
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.11.2024 Institute FC Institute FC 2-4 Ards FC Ards FC KİRL1
28.09.2024 Ards FC Ards FC 0-0 Institute FC Institute FC KİRL1
03.02.2024 Institute FC Institute FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Ards FC Ards FC KİRK
27.01.2024 Ards FC Ards FC 2-2 HT 1-0 Institute FC Institute FC KİRL1
22.12.2023 Institute FC Institute FC 3-2 HT 1-0 Ards FC Ards FC KİRL1
13.10.2023 Ards FC Ards FC 2-3 HT 1-2 Institute FC Institute FC KİRL1
POST-MATCH Institute FC vs Ards FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ards FC edged past Institute FC 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (31% / 30% / 39%) promised a tight game; Ards FC found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Institute FC had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Institute FC and 1.67 for Ards FC.

What was the final score of Institute FC vs Ards FC?

Institute FC 2-3 Ards FC in the North Ireland - 1st Division on 18/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Institute FC vs Ards FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ards FC win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Institute FC 31%, draw 30%, Ards FC 39%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ards FC) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ards FC) ✗ Under 2.5
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