Al Gharafa 1-4 Al Ahli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 18 Mar 2026

Al Gharafa
1-4 HT 1-0
Al Ahli
📅18/03/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Qatar League – 2025/2026

Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.19
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.55
No
43%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.9
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
2.88
6+ Goals
14%
8.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
12%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
42%
+6.1pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.4pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-2.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.8pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Al Gharafa v Al Ahli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 37%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.50/1.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.64
-1% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -7%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
334 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 79%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
11.7 Crosses 13.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Gharafa
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Al Ahli
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.83 xG 0.88
50% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
332 Passes 355
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.10.2025 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-3 HT 0-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
22.01.2025 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
18.08.2024 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
24.02.2024 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-2 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
01.09.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-4 HT 1-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
03.03.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-1 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
POST-MATCH Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli swept aside Al Gharafa 4-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Al Gharafa at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Gharafa had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Al Gharafa and 1.00 for Al Ahli.

What was the final score of Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli?

Al Gharafa 1-4 Al Ahli in the Qatar League on 18/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Al Gharafa 48%, draw 22%, Al Ahli 30%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Gharafa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Gharafa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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