Oldham Athletic 2-1 Hartlepool United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 18 Apr 2025

Oldham Athletic
2-1 HT 1-1
Hartlepool United
📅18/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - National League – 2024/2025

Oldham Athletic vs Hartlepool United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.75
Over
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
32%
2.83
2-3
40%
1.74
4-5
19%
3.79
6+
9%
16.95
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.83 — our 32% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.19
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
16%
4.95
X/2
10%
6.51
X/X
14%
4.48
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
15%
4.86
2/X
9%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
43%
-4.1pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.5pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.6pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Oldham Athletic v Hartlepool United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oldham Athletic EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartlepool United EU Bookmakers 33%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.43/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.36
-6% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
209 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 210 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Oldham Athletic vs Hartlepool United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oldham Athletic
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Hartlepool United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.28 xG 1.04
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
149 Passes 193
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 31
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.01.2025 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-1 HT 1-1 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic İBSL
30.12.2023 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic 2-0 HT 1-0 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İBSL
26.12.2023 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 1-3 HT 1-2 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic İBSL
01.01.2022 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 0-0 HT 0-0 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic İN2
18.09.2021 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic 0-0 HT 0-0 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İN2
19.03.2013 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic 3-0 HT 2-0 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İN1

Oldham Athletic 2-1 Hartlepool United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oldham Athletic
2-1
AWAY Hartlepool United
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
2 Passes 1
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Oldham Athletic vs Hartlepool United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oldham Athletic edged past Hartlepool United 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Oldham Athletic found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Oldham Athletic had 54% of the ball to Hartlepool United's 46%, shots finished 11-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Oldham Athletic had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Oldham Athletic and 0.50 for Hartlepool United.

What was the final score of Oldham Athletic vs Hartlepool United?

Oldham Athletic 2-1 Hartlepool United in the England - National League on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oldham Athletic vs Hartlepool United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oldham Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Oldham Athletic 39%, draw 30%, Hartlepool United 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Oldham Athletic) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Oldham Athletic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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