Aveley 1-0 Chelmsford City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.9
Over
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.23
2-3
38%
1.76
4-5
24%
3.38
6+
11%
12.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-3.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+2.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aveley EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelmsford City EU Bookmakers 42%
-11% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.56/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.14
+18% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +14%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
246 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aveley
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Chelmsford City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
4 Total Shots 10
0 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.01.2025 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 1-0 HT 1-0 Aveley Aveley İCON
02.03.2024 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 2-0 HT 1-0 Aveley Aveley İCON
13.11.2023 Aveley Aveley 1-2 HT 0-1 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
08.02.2020 Aveley Aveley 3-1 HT 1-0 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City FAK
POST-MATCH Aveley vs Chelmsford City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aveley edged past Chelmsford City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Chelmsford City at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Chelmsford City led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aveley and 1.50 for Chelmsford City.

What was the final score of Aveley vs Chelmsford City?

Aveley 1-0 Chelmsford City in the England - Conference on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aveley vs Chelmsford City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chelmsford City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Aveley 32%, draw 27%, Chelmsford City 41%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chelmsford City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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