Buxton 1-0 Chorley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.68
Over
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.65
2-3
42%
1.73
4-5
18%
4.07
6+
8%
19.75
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.65 — our 32% vs market 30.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+1.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.6pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Buxton EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Chorley EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -12%
1.31/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.39
-7% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Buxton
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Chorley
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2025 Chorley Chorley 3-0 HT 1-0 Buxton Buxton İCON
12.12.2023 Chorley Chorley 3-2 HT 1-1 Buxton Buxton İCON
25.02.2023 Chorley Chorley 2-2 HT 0-1 Buxton Buxton İCON
10.01.2023 Buxton Buxton 2-2 HT 0-1 Chorley Chorley İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Buxton
1-0
AWAY Chorley
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Buxton vs Chorley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Buxton nicked a narrow win over Chorley 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; Buxton found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Buxton had 55% of the ball to Chorley's 45%, shots finished 7-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Chorley led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Buxton and 2.50 for Chorley.

What was the final score of Buxton vs Chorley?

Buxton 1-0 Chorley in the England - Conference on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Buxton vs Chorley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Buxton win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Buxton 38%, draw 29%, Chorley 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Buxton), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Buxton) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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