Grimsby Town 0-4 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
36%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.29
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 27% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.68
1/2
11%
35.0
1/X
10%
13.45
X/1
17%
4.68
X/2
12%
7.65
X/X
8%
4.95
2/1
8%
24.2
2/2
13%
5.7
2/X
7%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
48%
-9.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+10.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.0pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 29%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.44/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.44
-27% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
238 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 73%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.7 Crosses 17.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grimsby Town
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Swindon Town
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.04 xG 2.10
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
238 Passes 262
68% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.12.2024 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
30.09.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
14.01.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 5-0 HT 1-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
24.09.2022 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-2 HT 1-2 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
22.02.2020 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-1 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
07.12.2019 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-3 HT 0-2 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grimsby Town
0-4
AWAY Swindon Town
0.40 xG 3.65
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 3
225 Passes 296
65% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 19
5 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Grimsby Town vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town ran out comfortable winners over Grimsby Town 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Swindon Town made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Grimsby Town had 45% of the ball to Swindon Town's 55%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.40 to 3.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swindon Town led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Grimsby Town and 3.00 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Grimsby Town vs Swindon Town?

Grimsby Town 0-4 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grimsby Town vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grimsby Town win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Grimsby Town 38%, draw 25%, Swindon Town 36%. The final score 0-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Grimsby Town) ✗ Under 2.5
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