Swindon Town 3-1 Grimsby Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 27% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.41
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
5%
13.7
X/1
9%
5.12
X/2
10%
5.88
X/X
11%
4.73
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
19%
4.14
2/X
9%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.9pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 37%
-6% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
1.23/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.28
+6% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
306 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 66%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
19.7 Crosses 19.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Grimsby Town
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.73 xG 0.97
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
293 Passes 231
74% Pass Accuracy 68%
24 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
14.01.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 5-0 HT 1-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
24.09.2022 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-2 HT 1-2 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
22.02.2020 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-1 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
07.12.2019 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-3 HT 0-2 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
23.02.2019 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
3-1
AWAY Grimsby Town
3.91 xG 1.38
37% Ball Possession 63%
17 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
105 Passes 270
51% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Grimsby Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town got the better of Grimsby Town 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Swindon Town as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Swindon Town had 37% of the ball to Grimsby Town's 63%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 3.91 to 1.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swindon Town had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Swindon Town and 0.67 for Grimsby Town.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Grimsby Town?

Swindon Town 3-1 Grimsby Town in the England - 2nd Division on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Grimsby Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 41%, draw 25%, Grimsby Town 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Swindon Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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