Carlisle United vs Port Vale Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Carlisle United v Port Vale — Team-Based Signals
Carlisle United vs Port Vale Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Carlisle United
İN1
1-3
HT 1-2
Port Vale
İN2
0-0
HT 0-0
Carlisle United
İN2
0-0
HT 0-0
Port Vale
İN2
Carlisle United 3-2 Port Vale — Actual Match Statistics
Carlisle United squeezed past Port Vale 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Port Vale at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Carlisle United had 55% of the ball to Port Vale's 45%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 1.11 to 3.05 — the balance of chances actually favoured Port Vale.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Port Vale led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Carlisle United and 0.83 for Port Vale.
What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Port Vale?
Carlisle United 3-2 Port Vale in the England - 2nd Division on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Port Vale?
Before kick-off our model rated an Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 31%, draw 25%, Port Vale 44%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.