Carlisle United vs Port Vale Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Carlisle United v Port Vale — Team-Based Signals
Carlisle United vs Port Vale Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Carlisle United
İN1
1-3
HT 1-2
Port Vale
İN2
0-0
HT 0-0
Carlisle United
İN2
0-0
HT 0-0
Port Vale
İN2
0-1
HT 0-0
Carlisle United
İN2
2-1
HT 0-1
Carlisle United
İN2
Carlisle United 2-1 Port Vale — Actual Match Statistics
Carlisle United nicked a narrow win over Port Vale 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Carlisle United found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Carlisle United had 50% of the ball to Port Vale's 50%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.04 to 0.57 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Carlisle United's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Port Vale led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Carlisle United and 1.00 for Port Vale.
What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Port Vale?
Carlisle United 2-1 Port Vale in the England - 1st Division on 01/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Port Vale?
Before kick-off our model rated an Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 35%, draw 28%, Port Vale 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.