Derby County 2-3 Peterborough United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 1 Jan 2024

Derby County
2-3 HT 1-1
Peterborough United
📅01/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Derby County vs Peterborough United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
9.16
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.45
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1
19%
4.45
X/2
9%
8.01
X/X
7%
5.33
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.15
2/2
14%
5.55
2/X
8%
13.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.15 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-4.0pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+6.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Peterborough United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -2%
1.16/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.31
+16% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
392 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 74%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
21.4 Crosses 21.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Derby County vs Peterborough United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Peterborough United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.19 xG 1.48
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
391 Passes 283
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.08.2023 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-4 HT 1-4 Derby County Derby County İN1
25.03.2023 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İN1
27.08.2022 Derby County Derby County 2-1 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
19.02.2022 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İNCL
14.08.2021 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-1 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
20.04.2013 Derby County Derby County 3-1 HT 1-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İNCL

Derby County 2-3 Peterborough United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
2-3
AWAY Peterborough United
1.48 xG 1.56
34% Ball Possession 66%
13 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 11
220 Passes 512
73% Pass Accuracy 88%
27 Box Touches 35
14 Crosses 35
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Peterborough United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Peterborough United squeezed past Derby County 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Derby County at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Derby County had 34% of the ball to Peterborough United's 66%, shots finished 13-20, expected goals 1.48 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Derby County and 1.33 for Peterborough United.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Peterborough United?

Derby County 2-3 Peterborough United in the England - 1st Division on 01/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Peterborough United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Derby County 46%, draw 23%, Peterborough United 31%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Derby County) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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