Portsmouth 2-1 Stevenage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 1 Jan 2024

📅01/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.84
6+ Goals
10%
17.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 31% vs market 27.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.63
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.8
X/1
12%
4.25
X/2
16%
7.55
X/X
10%
4.43
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
7%
5.89
2/X
10%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Stevenage EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.48/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.15
-5% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
307 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 67%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
24.5 Crosses 20.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portsmouth
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Stevenage
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.71 xG 1.09
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
422 Passes 163
79% Pass Accuracy 59%
25 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.08.2023 Stevenage Stevenage 0-0 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
13.12.2022 Portsmouth Portsmouth 3-0 HT 1-0 Stevenage Stevenage İNTK
29.08.2020 Stevenage Stevenage 3-3 HT 3-2 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNLK
20.07.2019 Stevenage Stevenage 0-1 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth HAZ
14.07.2018 Stevenage Stevenage 3-2 HT 1-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth HAZ
18.03.2017 Stevenage Stevenage 3-0 HT 2-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portsmouth
2-1
AWAY Stevenage
1.79 xG 0.98
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 5
308 Passes 193
68% Pass Accuracy 58%
20 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Portsmouth vs Stevenage
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portsmouth edged past Stevenage 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Portsmouth as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Portsmouth had 56% of the ball to Stevenage's 44%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.79 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Portsmouth and 1.50 for Stevenage.

What was the final score of Portsmouth vs Stevenage?

Portsmouth 2-1 Stevenage in the England - 1st Division on 01/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portsmouth vs Stevenage?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portsmouth win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Portsmouth 43%, draw 28%, Stevenage 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portsmouth) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Portsmouth) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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