Cherno More Varna 1-1 PFC Beroe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.52
Over 2.5
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.19
No
58%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-1.2pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.1pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.7pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY PFC Beroe EU Bookmakers 24%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +7%
0.92/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.00
-26% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
2W-1D-1L
AWAY PFC Beroe
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
09.11.2024 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 0-1 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
09.03.2024 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 2-0 HT 2-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
15.09.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 2-0 HT 1-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
23.06.2017 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 2-2 HT 0-2 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
1-1
AWAY PFC Beroe
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs PFC Beroe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna and PFC Beroe couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Cherno More Varna at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 49% of the ball to PFC Beroe's 51%, shots finished 10-11.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Cherno More Varna had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Cherno More Varna and 1.00 for PFC Beroe.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs PFC Beroe?

Cherno More Varna 1-1 PFC Beroe in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs PFC Beroe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 49%, draw 25%, PFC Beroe 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cherno More Varna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
18 Apr 2025
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