Amiens SC 3-2 Guingamp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.75
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
46%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.12
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.62
6+ Goals
8%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 29% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.05
1/2
6%
24.65
1/X
6%
15.5
X/1
12%
8.78
X/2
18%
4.36
X/X
8%
4.84
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
22%
2.4
2/X
10%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
23%
+6.6pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
46%
Away Win
52%
-5.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.8pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amiens SC EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Guingamp EU Bookmakers 56%
-4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.02/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.77
-31% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% / +11%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
277 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 80%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
14.7 Crosses 20.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amiens SC
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Guingamp
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.19 xG 1.60
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
348 Passes 330
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
22.11.2024 Guingamp Guingamp 3-0 HT 2-0 Amiens SC Amiens SC FR2
06.04.2024 Guingamp Guingamp 0-0 HT 0-0 Amiens SC Amiens SC FR2
02.09.2023 Amiens SC Amiens SC 4-1 HT 1-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
15.04.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 3-1 HT 1-0 Amiens SC Amiens SC FR2
10.01.2023 Amiens SC Amiens SC 1-1 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
22.01.2022 Amiens SC Amiens SC 3-0 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amiens SC
3-2
AWAY Guingamp
2.44 xG 2.71
33% Ball Possession 67%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
263 Passes 561
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 45
6 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Amiens SC vs Guingamp
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amiens SC squeezed past Guingamp 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Guingamp at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Amiens SC had 33% of the ball to Guingamp's 67%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 2.44 to 2.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Amiens SC and 1.33 for Guingamp.

What was the final score of Amiens SC vs Guingamp?

Amiens SC 3-2 Guingamp in the France - Ligue 2 on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amiens SC vs Guingamp?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guingamp win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Amiens SC 30%, draw 25%, Guingamp 46%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Guingamp) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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