Ajaccio 1-1 Pau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 18 Apr 2025

Ajaccio
1-1 HT 0-1
Pau
📅18/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
30%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.67
Over 2.5
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.72
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
4.14
6+ Goals
10%
20.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.68
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
12%
5.46
X/2
10%
6.14
X/X
13%
4.05
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
11%
4.41
2/X
9%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+3.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
30%
Away Win
32%
-1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajaccio EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Pau EU Bookmakers 36%
+8% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -13%
1.29/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.51
+11% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
331 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
21.3 Crosses 19.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajaccio
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Pau
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.03 xG 1.08
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
344 Passes 321
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.12.2024 Pau Pau 1-0 HT 1-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
06.04.2024 Pau Pau 1-1 HT 1-1 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
21.10.2023 Ajaccio Ajaccio 2-0 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
09.04.2022 Ajaccio Ajaccio 2-1 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
30.10.2021 Pau Pau 1-0 HT 0-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
01.05.2021 Pau Pau 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajaccio
1-1
AWAY Pau
2.60 xG 1.68
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
427 Passes 344
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 24
26 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ajaccio vs Pau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajaccio and Pau shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Ajaccio at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Ajaccio had 55% of the ball to Pau's 45%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.60 to 1.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Ajaccio and 0.67 for Pau.

What was the final score of Ajaccio vs Pau?

Ajaccio 1-1 Pau in the France - Ligue 2 on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajaccio vs Pau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajaccio win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ajaccio 42%, draw 28%, Pau 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ajaccio) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajaccio) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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