Porto 2-1 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.36
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.4
6+ Goals
12%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 28% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.94
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
16.5
X/1
21%
3.95
X/2
8%
11.55
X/X
14%
5.67
2/1
6%
23.3
2/2
7%
9.81
2/X
6%
18.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-6.0pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.1pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 20%
+6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +10%
2.00/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.77
+11% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / -10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
345 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 70%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
21.1 Crosses 16.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Famalicao
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.35 xG 1.24
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
487 Passes 216
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
07.12.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 1-1 HT 1-0 Porto Porto POR
13.04.2024 Porto Porto 2-2 HT 1-2 Famalicao Famalicao POR
02.12.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 0-3 HT 0-2 Porto Porto POR
20.05.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 2-4 HT 2-2 Porto Porto POR
04.05.2023 Porto Porto 3-2 HT 1-1 Famalicao Famalicao POK
26.04.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-2 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
2-1
AWAY Famalicao
0.78 xG 0.39
58% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
402 Passes 275
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 10
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Porto vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto squeezed past Famalicao 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Porto had 58% of the ball to Famalicao's 42%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.78 to 0.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Porto and 1.33 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Porto vs Famalicao?

Porto 2-1 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Porto 55%, draw 25%, Famalicao 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
18 Apr 2025
17:30 Farense vs Boavista Analysis →
17:30 Rio Ave vs Santa Clara Analysis →
22:30 Sporting CP vs Moreirense Analysis →