Sporting CP 3-1 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 Apr 2025

Sporting CP
3-1 HT 2-0
Moreirense
📅18/04/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Sporting CP vs Moreirense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.18
Draw
20%
5.71
Away
15%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.51
No
60%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.39
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.18
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.39 — our 26% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.31
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
31.0
X/1
20%
3.65
X/2
5%
32.5
X/X
8%
8.98
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
5%
32.5
2/X
7%
35.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
80%
-14.5pp
20%
Draw
14%
+5.5pp
15%
Away Win
6%
+9.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
36%
+4.3pp
60%
BTTS No
64%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting CP v Moreirense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 8%
+1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
2.37/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/2.09
+3% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -7%
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
462 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 72%
35.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
23.5 Crosses 12.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Sporting CP vs Moreirense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Moreirense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.83 xG 0.40
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
506 Passes 225
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 10
23 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.12.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 2-1 HT 2-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
19.02.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 0-2 HT 0-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
17.09.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
14.03.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 0-2 HT 0-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
23.10.2021 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-0 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
05.04.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR

Sporting CP 3-1 Moreirense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
3-1
AWAY Moreirense
2.51 xG 0.38
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
548 Passes 275
91% Pass Accuracy 82%
44 Box Touches 6
15 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP got the better of Moreirense 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting CP had 64% of the ball to Moreirense's 36%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 2.51 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sporting CP and 0.50 for Moreirense.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Moreirense?

Sporting CP 3-1 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 65%, draw 20%, Moreirense 15%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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