SGV Freiberg 1-3 Steinbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 18 Apr 2026

📅18/04/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.53
Draw
17%
4.19
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
61%
-0.4pp
17%
Draw
20%
-3.3pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.3pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Steinbach EU Bookmakers 22%
+15% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
2.03/0.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/2.03
-4% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
335 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SGV Freiberg
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Steinbach
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.10.2025 Steinbach Steinbach 1-1 HT 1-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
30.11.2024 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 4-0 HT 4-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
03.08.2024 Steinbach Steinbach 0-2 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
04.05.2024 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-1 HT 1-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
28.10.2023 Steinbach Steinbach 0-1 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
05.04.2023 Steinbach Steinbach 4-0 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH SGV Freiberg vs Steinbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Steinbach got the better of SGV Freiberg 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. SGV Freiberg carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for SGV Freiberg and 1.00 for Steinbach.

What was the final score of SGV Freiberg vs Steinbach?

SGV Freiberg 1-3 Steinbach in the Germany - Regional League on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SGV Freiberg vs Steinbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split SGV Freiberg 60%, draw 17%, Steinbach 23%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (SGV Freiberg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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