Progreso 2-1 Montevideo Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 18 Apr 2026

📅18/04/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.62
Over 2.5
51%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.9
No
46%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+2.4pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.4pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
58%
-8.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
42%
+8.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.5pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers EU Bookmakers 38%
+7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -16%
1.33/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.29
+16% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.09.2025 Progreso Progreso 2-0 HT 2-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
28.03.2025 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
10.11.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
14.07.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 4-2 HT 2-1 Progreso Progreso URU
04.05.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 2-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
15.11.2021 Progreso Progreso 3-1 HT 2-1 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
2-1
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ Progreso vs Montevideo Wanderers
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Progreso edged past Montevideo Wanderers 2-1 in the Uruguay - Premier League on 18 Apr 2026. Half-time: 1-0.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Progreso had 40% of the ball to Montevideo Wanderers's 60%, shots finished 9-12.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours are even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Progreso and 1.33 for Montevideo Wanderers.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Montevideo Wanderers?

Progreso 2-1 Montevideo Wanderers in the Uruguay - Premier League on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Montevideo Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Progreso 39%, draw 26%, Montevideo Wanderers 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Progreso), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Progreso) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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