Progreso 2-0 Montevideo Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.59
Over 2.5
48%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
13%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+2.4pp
24%
Draw
29%
-5.1pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
59%
-6.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
41%
+6.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.0pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -14%
1.24/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.09
+2% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
313 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 20.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.03.2025 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
10.11.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
14.07.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 4-2 HT 2-1 Progreso Progreso URU
04.05.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 2-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
15.11.2021 Progreso Progreso 3-1 HT 2-1 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
31.07.2021 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 2-0 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
2-0
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 5
FAQ Progreso vs Montevideo Wanderers
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Progreso beat Montevideo Wanderers 2-0 in the Uruguay - Premier League on 21 Sep 2025.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Progreso had 55% of the ball to Montevideo Wanderers's 45%, shots finished 10-12.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montevideo Wanderers lead the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Progreso and 1.67 for Montevideo Wanderers.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Montevideo Wanderers?

Progreso 2-0 Montevideo Wanderers in the Uruguay - Premier League on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Montevideo Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Progreso 43%, draw 24%, Montevideo Wanderers 33%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Progreso), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Progreso) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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