Nacional de Football vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nacional de Football v Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Team-Based Signals
Nacional de Football vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Nacional de Football
URU
3-0
HT 1-0
Nacional de Football
URU
Nacional de Football 3-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Actual Match Statistics
Nacional de Football got the better of Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Nacional de Football had 41% of the ball to Liverpool FC (Montevideo)'s 59%, shots finished 10-6.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nacional de Football and 1.17 for Liverpool FC (Montevideo).
What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?
Nacional de Football 3-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) in the Uruguay - Premier League on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 54%, draw 25%, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.