Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Wellington Phoenix
AVUS
1-2
HT 1-0
Melbourne Victory
AVUS
3-1
HT 1-1
Wellington Phoenix
AVUS
Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne Victory squeezed past Wellington Phoenix 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Wellington Phoenix at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 64% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 36%, shots finished 27-13, expected goals 2.77 to 1.74 — on chances, Wellington Phoenix could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.17 for Melbourne Victory.
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 42%, draw 31%, Melbourne Victory 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.