Paksi SE 2-1 Kisvarda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
2.51
Over 2.5
66%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.61
No
41%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
18%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
12%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
63%
-2.6pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.7pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.9pp
34%
Under 2.5
36%
-2.4pp
66%
Over 2.5
64%
+2.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.3pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paksi SE EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Kisvarda EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -6%
2.11/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/2.66
+9% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
314 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
32.9 Crosses 23.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paksi SE
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Kisvarda
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
3.12 xG 1.19
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
188 Passes 251
66% Pass Accuracy 70%
36 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.04.2024 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-1 HT 1-1 Kisvarda Kisvarda MACK
25.02.2024 Kisvarda Kisvarda 0-1 HT 0-1 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
29.10.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 3-1 HT 2-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
23.04.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-0 HT 1-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
28.01.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 2-2 HT 0-1 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
31.08.2022 Paksi SE Paksi SE 1-3 HT 0-2 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paksi SE
2-1
AWAY Kisvarda
3.14 xG 0.78
40% Ball Possession 60%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
230 Passes 363
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Paksi SE vs Kisvarda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paksi SE edged past Kisvarda 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Paksi SE as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Paksi SE had 40% of the ball to Kisvarda's 60%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 3.14 to 0.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paksi SE's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paksi SE had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Paksi SE and 1.17 for Kisvarda.

What was the final score of Paksi SE vs Kisvarda?

Paksi SE 2-1 Kisvarda in the Hungary - NB I on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paksi SE vs Kisvarda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paksi SE win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Paksi SE 60%, draw 21%, Kisvarda 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paksi SE), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paksi SE) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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