Gaziantep FK 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.87
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
10%
10.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.82
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
12.65
X/1
15%
5.92
X/2
16%
5.47
X/X
8%
4.92
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
11%
3.42
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · 1/X at 12.65 — our 12% vs market 5.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-2.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.5pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gaziantep FK EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 42%
+8% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.37/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.49
+13% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
305 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 80%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
18.6 Crosses 17.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gaziantep FK
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.77 xG 2.05
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
281 Passes 459
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.12.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-3 HT 0-1 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
13.11.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 3-3 HT 1-2 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
08.01.2022 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 3-1 HT 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
14.08.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 3-2 HT 2-1 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
03.02.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 HT 0-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
20.09.2020 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 2-2 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gaziantep FK
3-1
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.72 xG 0.30
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 12
233 Passes 300
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 18
29 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gaziantep FK got the better of Fatih Karagümrük 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Gaziantep FK found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gaziantep FK had 45% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 55%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 1.72 to 0.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.83 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Gaziantep FK 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - Super League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gaziantep FK win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Gaziantep FK 38%, draw 27%, Fatih Karagümrük 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gaziantep FK), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gaziantep FK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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