Celta Vigo 1-2 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.12
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.61
6+ Goals
8%
14.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 30% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.55
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
18%
4.51
X/2
8%
8.18
X/X
12%
4.75
2/1
6%
24.65
2/2
13%
6.42
2/X
10%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.3pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 28%
+4% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.46/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.21
+17% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +54%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
17.3 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.22 xG 0.79
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
327 Passes 373
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 3
10.01.2025 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1 HT 1-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
31.03.2024 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
11.12.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
11.03.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
10.11.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
05.02.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
1-2
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
2.64 xG 1.17
62% Ball Possession 38%
24 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
418 Passes 232
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
36 Box Touches 7
14 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano nicked a narrow win over Celta Vigo 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Celta Vigo at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 62% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 38%, shots finished 24-7, expected goals 2.64 to 1.17 — the balance of chances actually favoured Celta Vigo.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celta Vigo had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Celta Vigo and 0.33 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano?

Celta Vigo 1-2 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 45%, draw 29%, Rayo Vallecano 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Celta Vigo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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