Haverfordwest County 3-1 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒19:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 33% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
4%
X/X
14%
2/1
3%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
44%
+2.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-1.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.7pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Haverfordwest County EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 32%
+8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +21%
1.31/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.53
-25% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / -4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
376 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Haverfordwest County
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Corners 3
29.03.2025 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 1-1 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
08.02.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
26.10.2024 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 0-0 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
17.08.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
16.12.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
26.08.2023 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 1-1 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Haverfordwest County
3-1
AWAY Caernarfon Town
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Haverfordwest County saw off Caernarfon Town 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Haverfordwest County as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Haverfordwest County had 52% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 48%, shots finished 12-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Haverfordwest County had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Haverfordwest County and 0.67 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town?

Haverfordwest County 3-1 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Haverfordwest County win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Haverfordwest County 46%, draw 27%, Caernarfon Town 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Haverfordwest County) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Haverfordwest County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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