Haverfordwest County 1-1 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 29 Mar 2025

Haverfordwest County
1-1 HT 0-0
Caernarfon Town
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2024/2025

Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.81
No
60%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.91
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.7
6+ Goals
8%
16.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 31% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
51%
-11.3pp
60%
BTTS No
49%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Haverfordwest County v Caernarfon Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Haverfordwest County EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 29%
+10% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +21%
1.34/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.32
-22% / +73% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / +24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 3.3

Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Haverfordwest County
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
The Meetings
08.02.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
26.10.2024 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 0-0 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
17.08.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
16.12.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
26.08.2023 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 1-1 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
25.03.2023 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 2-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
POST-MATCH Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Haverfordwest County and Caernarfon Town shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Haverfordwest County at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Haverfordwest County had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Haverfordwest County and 0.83 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town?

Haverfordwest County 1-1 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Haverfordwest County win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Haverfordwest County 44%, draw 28%, Caernarfon Town 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Haverfordwest County), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Haverfordwest County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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