Penybont 1-0 The New Saints — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.91
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
54%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.05
6+ Goals
9%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 29% vs market 20.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
5%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
37%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
14%
+5.9pp
27%
Draw
20%
+6.2pp
54%
Away Win
66%
-12.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY The New Saints EU Bookmakers 70%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
0.82/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.61/0.65
-16% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +51%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
263 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
1W-0D-5L
AWAY The New Saints
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.02.2025 The New Saints The New Saints 4-0 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
23.11.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 3-2 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
20.09.2024 Penybont Penybont 2-1 HT 1-1 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
16.12.2023 The New Saints The New Saints 3-0 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
07.10.2023 Penybont Penybont 1-4 HT 1-0 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
04.03.2023 Penybont Penybont 0-2 HT 0-2 The New Saints The New Saints GALWK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penybont
1-0
AWAY The New Saints
47% Ball Possession 53%
5 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Penybont vs The New Saints
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont edged past The New Saints 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was The New Saints at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Penybont had 47% of the ball to The New Saints's 53%, shots finished 5-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, The New Saints led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Penybont and 2.83 for The New Saints.

What was the final score of Penybont vs The New Saints?

Penybont 1-0 The New Saints in the Wales - Premier League on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs The New Saints?

Before kick-off our model rated an The New Saints win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Penybont 20%, draw 27%, The New Saints 54%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (The New Saints) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (The New Saints) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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