Toluca 3-0 Tigres UANL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 May 2025

Toluca
3-0 HT 1-0
Tigres UANL
📅18/05/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Toluca vs Tigres UANL Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.03
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.56
6+ Goals
9%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.54
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
18%
4.48
X/2
10%
8.25
X/X
14%
4.73
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
10%
6.5
2/X
6%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toluca v Tigres UANL — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 27%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.60/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.31
+17% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
323 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 77%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
16.3 Crosses 16.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6

Toluca vs Tigres UANL Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Tigres UANL
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.65 xG 0.91
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
403 Passes 340
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.05.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
02.02.2025 Toluca Toluca 1-0 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
07.11.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-1 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
03.03.2024 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
05.10.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-2 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
14.05.2023 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK

Toluca 3-0 Tigres UANL — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
3-0
AWAY Tigres UANL
1.97 xG 0.25
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 5
328 Passes 380
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 10
8 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Tigres UANL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca ran out comfortable winners over Tigres UANL 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Toluca had 47% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 53%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.97 to 0.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Toluca and 1.17 for Tigres UANL.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Tigres UANL?

Toluca 3-0 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Tigres UANL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Toluca 48%, draw 26%, Tigres UANL 26%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →