Pumas UNAM 1-0 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 May 2026

📅18/05/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
40%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.97
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.38
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
25.5
1/X
9%
12.7
X/1
14%
5.6
X/2
15%
5.99
X/X
7%
5.32
2/1
7%
24.35
2/2
17%
3.75
2/X
6%
12.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 7% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-1.6pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.6pp
40%
Away Win
35%
+4.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.5pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 39%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.40/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.35
+13% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
289 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 81%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
17.5 Crosses 15.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Pachuca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.07 xG 1.38
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
388 Passes 311
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.05.2026 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
26.04.2026 Pachuca Pachuca 0-2 HT 0-2 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
21.11.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 3-1 HT 2-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
20.07.2025 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-3 HT 2-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
17.02.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 2-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
22.07.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-0 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
1-0
AWAY Pachuca
0.77 xG 1.26
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
344 Passes 320
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM squeezed past Pachuca 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 22% / 40% — and on the day Pumas UNAM made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 51% of the ball to Pachuca's 49%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.77 to 1.26 — the balance of chances actually favoured Pachuca.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.50 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?

Pumas UNAM 1-0 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 18/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 38%, draw 22%, Pachuca 40%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pachuca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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