FC Juarez 1-2 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Jul 2024

📅18/07/2024 · 🕒04:06 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
32%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.88
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.17
6+ Goals
9%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 27% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
32%
+9.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
33%
Away Win
42%
-9.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 46%
+0% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.19/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/1.44
-1% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -14%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
246 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.3
16.4 Crosses 23.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.16 xG 1.60
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
240 Passes 336
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.01.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
23.08.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 4-1 HT 3-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
08.01.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-1 HT 0-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
01.10.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 3-1 HT 2-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
03.04.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-1 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
17.10.2021 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
1-2
AWAY Pumas UNAM
0.86 xG 0.47
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
281 Passes 287
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM edged past FC Juarez 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was FC Juarez at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, FC Juarez had 49% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 51%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.86 to 0.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Juarez and 1.17 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM?

FC Juarez 1-2 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 18/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Juarez win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 41%, draw 27%, Pumas UNAM 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Juarez), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Juarez) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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