Necaxa 0-1 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Jul 2024

Necaxa
0-1 HT 0-0
Monterrey
📅18/07/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Necaxa vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.49
6+ Goals
10%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 27% vs market 24.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
21%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Necaxa v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +17%
1.24/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.18
+8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
20.3 Crosses 16.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9

Necaxa vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Monterrey
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.88 xG 1.55
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
272 Passes 358
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.04.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 2-5 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
01.11.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 3-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
19.02.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 2-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
13.08.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 1-2 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
15.01.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 0-4 HT 0-3 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
24.10.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 0-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK

Necaxa 0-1 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
0-1
AWAY Monterrey
0.35 xG 0.78
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
228 Passes 485
74% Pass Accuracy 89%
16 Box Touches 17
9 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey nicked a narrow win over Necaxa 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Monterrey found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Necaxa had 36% of the ball to Monterrey's 64%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.35 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Necaxa and 2.67 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Monterrey?

Necaxa 0-1 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 18/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 36%, draw 26%, Monterrey 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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