Toluca 3-0 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Jul 2024

Toluca
3-0 HT 2-0
Mazatlan
📅18/07/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Toluca vs Mazatlan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.28
Draw
22%
5.28
Away
18%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.96
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.95
2-3 Goals
38%
2.19
4-5 Goals
26%
2.47
6+ Goals
14%
4.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
27%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
74%
-13.2pp
22%
Draw
16%
+6.2pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toluca v Mazatlan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 14%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
2.11/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.90
+10% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
442 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 78%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
14.4 Crosses 13.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Toluca vs Mazatlan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mazatlan
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.67 xG 1.19
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
467 Passes 233
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.01.2024 Toluca Toluca 4-1 HT 1-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
11.11.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
12.03.2023 Toluca Toluca 4-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
17.09.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
22.01.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
18.08.2021 Toluca Toluca 2-2 HT 2-2 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK

Toluca 3-0 Mazatlan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
3-0
AWAY Mazatlan
1.26 xG 0.44
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
457 Passes 379
89% Pass Accuracy 89%
31 Box Touches 8
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca ran out comfortable winners over Mazatlan 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Toluca had 54% of the ball to Mazatlan's 46%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.26 to 0.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Toluca and 1.17 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Mazatlan?

Toluca 3-0 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 18/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Toluca 60%, draw 22%, Mazatlan 18%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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