Treaty United 1-5 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - FAI Cup, 18 Jul 2025

📅18/07/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
5.91
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
46%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.15
Over 2.5
42%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.0
2-3 Goals
43%
1.84
4-5 Goals
17%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.84
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 29% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
26%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
14%
+12.5pp
28%
Draw
21%
+7.3pp
46%
Away Win
66%
-19.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
43%
+15.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
57%
-15.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.7pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Treaty United EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 70%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/0.93
-100% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -72% / -6%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
186 · 63% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Treaty United
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Derry City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
32% Ball Possession 68%
4 Total Shots 25
1 Shots on Target 9
0 Corners 11
2 Yellow Cards 0
16.10.2022 Derry City Derry City 2-1 HT 2-1 Treaty United Treaty United İRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Treaty United
1-5
AWAY Derry City
28% Ball Possession 72%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Treaty United vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City ran out comfortable winners over Treaty United 5-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Derry City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Treaty United had 28% of the ball to Derry City's 72%, shots finished 7-14.

What was the final score of Treaty United vs Derry City?

Treaty United 1-5 Derry City in the Ireland - FAI Cup on 18/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Treaty United vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Treaty United 26%, draw 28%, Derry City 46%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derry City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derry City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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