Keflavik 5-4 Fjölnir — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - 1st Division, 18 Jul 2025

📅18/07/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.47
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
28%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
Over 2.5
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
64%
-12.1pp
20%
Draw
19%
+0.5pp
28%
Away Win
17%
+11.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.0pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Keflavik EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Fjölnir EU Bookmakers 20%
-16% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
2.21/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.73
-11% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +38%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
380 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Keflavik
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Fjölnir
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.05.2025 Fjölnir Fjölnir 1-3 HT 1-1 Keflavik Keflavik İZL1
14.09.2024 Keflavik Keflavik 4-0 HT 1-0 Fjölnir Fjölnir İZL1
04.07.2024 Fjölnir Fjölnir 0-0 HT 0-0 Keflavik Keflavik İZL1
03.03.2023 Fjölnir Fjölnir 4-5 HT 1-2 Keflavik Keflavik İZLK
08.08.2018 Fjölnir Fjölnir 0-0 HT 0-0 Keflavik Keflavik İZL
18.05.2018 Keflavik Keflavik 1-2 HT 0-1 Fjölnir Fjölnir İZL
POST-MATCH Keflavik vs Fjölnir
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Keflavik edged past Fjölnir 5-4. It was 2-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Keflavik as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 5-4 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Keflavik had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Keflavik and 1.17 for Fjölnir.

What was the final score of Keflavik vs Fjölnir?

Keflavik 5-4 Fjölnir in the Iceland - 1st Division on 18/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Keflavik vs Fjölnir?

Before kick-off our model rated a Keflavik win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Keflavik 52%, draw 20%, Fjölnir 28%. The final score 5-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Keflavik), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Keflavik) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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