Smorgon 3-4 FC Minsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Cup, 18 Jul 2026

📅18/07/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
6.35
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
63%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.33
Over 2.5
51%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
22%
4.44
2-3 Goals
43%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.68
6+ Goals
12%
7.27
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.44 — our 22% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
11%
1/X
5%
X/1
4%
X/2
24%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
28%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
12%
+5.4pp
19%
Draw
18%
+1.3pp
63%
Away Win
70%
-6.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
39%
+10.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
61%
-10.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smorgon EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Minsk EU Bookmakers 75%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
0.29/3.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/2.00
-56% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -70%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
261 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 421 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smorgon
1W-3D-2L
AWAY FC Minsk
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
47% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.10.2025 FC Minsk FC Minsk 2-2 HT 2-1 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
01.06.2025 Smorgon Smorgon 0-2 HT 0-1 FC Minsk FC Minsk BLR
18.08.2024 Smorgon Smorgon 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Minsk FC Minsk BLR
05.04.2024 FC Minsk FC Minsk 2-3 HT 1-2 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
05.11.2023 Smorgon Smorgon 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Minsk FC Minsk BLR
10.06.2023 FC Minsk FC Minsk 2-1 HT 2-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Smorgon
3-4
AWAY FC Minsk
11 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Smorgon vs FC Minsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Minsk nicked a narrow win over Smorgon 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Minsk as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, shots finished 11-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Minsk led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Smorgon and 1.50 for FC Minsk.

What was the final score of Smorgon vs FC Minsk?

Smorgon 3-4 FC Minsk in the Belarus - Cup on 18/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smorgon vs FC Minsk?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Minsk win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Smorgon 18%, draw 19%, FC Minsk 63%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Minsk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Minsk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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