Arezzo 2-1 Ascoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Pro League Cup, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
40%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.71
Over 2.5
52%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.84
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
4.12
6+ Goals
12%
19.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.12 — our 25% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.4pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+4.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
55%
-6.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
45%
+6.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.6pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arezzo EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Ascoli EU Bookmakers 39%
-52% / -52% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+146% / -72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
240 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arezzo
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Ascoli
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
03.02.2005 Ascoli Ascoli 2-2 HT 2-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTB
21.09.2004 Arezzo Arezzo 0-0 HT 0-0 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arezzo
2-1
AWAY Ascoli
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arezzo vs Ascoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arezzo edged past Ascoli 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Arezzo made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Arezzo had 48% of the ball to Ascoli's 52%, shots finished 15-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arezzo and 1.00 for Ascoli.

What was the final score of Arezzo vs Ascoli?

Arezzo 2-1 Ascoli in the Italy - Pro League Cup on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arezzo vs Ascoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ascoli win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Arezzo 35%, draw 25%, Ascoli 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ascoli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ascoli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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