Bragantino 1-2 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.67
Over 2.5
36%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.85
No
59%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.74
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.27
6+ Goals
8%
21.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 35% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.64
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
11%
13.25
X/1
15%
5.19
X/2
14%
5.71
X/X
11%
4.04
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
14%
4.18
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.1pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.9pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.3pp
64%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.9pp
59%
BTTS No
50%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bragantino EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 37%
-6% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +1%
1.10/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.47
+2% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -23%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 81%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
18.8 Crosses 19.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bragantino
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Fortaleza
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.26 xG 1.45
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
359 Passes 254
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
15 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.04.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-1 HT 1-1 Bragantino BR1
01.12.2023 Bragantino 1-2 HT 1-2 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
10.11.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 6-0 HT 4-0 Bragantino BR1
21.07.2022 Bragantino 2-1 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
14.11.2021 Bragantino 3-0 HT 2-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
25.07.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bragantino
1-2
AWAY Fortaleza
2.24 xG 1.97
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 2
365 Passes 218
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 26
35 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bragantino vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza squeezed past Bragantino 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 30% / 33% — and on the day Fortaleza made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bragantino had 61% of the ball to Fortaleza's 39%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 2.24 to 1.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bragantino and 1.83 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Bragantino vs Fortaleza?

Bragantino 1-2 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 37%, draw 30%, Fortaleza 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bragantino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
18 Aug 2024
03:00 Fluminense vs Corinthians Analysis →
22:00 Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo Analysis →
22:00 Atletico Goianiense vs Internacional Analysis →
22:00 Criciuma vs Vasco da Gama Analysis →