Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Palmeiras v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-0
HT 3-0
Sao Paulo
BR1
1-2
HT 1-0
Sao Paulo
BRK
1-0
HT 0-0
Palmeiras
BRK
0-2
HT 0-1
Palmeiras
BR1
Palmeiras 2-1 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics
Palmeiras edged past Sao Paulo 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Palmeiras had 53% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 47%, shots finished 24-8, expected goals 2.17 to 0.62 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Palmeiras's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Palmeiras and 0.50 for Sao Paulo.
What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Palmeiras 2-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 44%, draw 31%, Sao Paulo 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.