18/10/2024
·
21:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-1
2nd Score
1-0
Martigues vs Rodez Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14
— our 29% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
Value flag · X/1 at 8.88
— our 16% vs market 7.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
22%
23%
Draw
25%
45%
Away Win
52%
53%
Under 2.5
52%
47%
Over 2.5
48%
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
53%
BTTS No
50%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Martigues v Rodez — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Martigues
EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY
Rodez
EU Bookmakers 56%
-27% /
-27%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-75%
/
-19%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
48%
Ball Possession
52%
11
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Target
5
5
Corners
5
308 · 74%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
375 · 79%
13.3
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
17.0
Crosses
–
1.0
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Martigues vs Rodez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Rodez beat Martigues 2-0 away from home.
As we said in the preview, our model had Rodez as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
What was the final score of Martigues vs Rodez?
Martigues 0-2 Rodez in the France - Ligue 2 on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Martigues vs Rodez?
Before kick-off our model rated an Rodez win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Martigues 32%, draw 23%, Rodez 45%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rodez), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Rodez)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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18 Oct 2024