Fagiano Okayama 1-2 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.32
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.39
6+ Goals
9%
12.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.06
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
26.5
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
20%
6.01
X/2
12%
5.44
X/X
10%
4.77
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
19%
3.48
2/X
8%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.5 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
-0.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.9pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -15%
1.09/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.35
-32% / +90% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -7%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
258 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 424 · 83%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
23.3 Crosses 18.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.22 xG 1.37
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
329 Passes 315
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 0
02.04.2025 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 2-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
21.03.2015 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-2
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
0.76 xG 1.84
35% Ball Possession 65%
13 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
189 Passes 425
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 28
23 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka nicked a narrow win over Fagiano Okayama 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cerezo Osaka as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 35% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 65%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 0.76 to 1.84.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.50 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Cerezo Osaka?

Fagiano Okayama 1-2 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 35%, draw 24%, Cerezo Osaka 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
18 Oct 2025
08:00 Yokohama F. Marinos vs Urawa Red Diamonds Analysis →
08:00 Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka Analysis →
08:00 Tokyo Verdy vs Albirex Niigata Analysis →
08:00 Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-Pulse Analysis →
08:00 Yokohama FC vs Nagoya Grampus Analysis →
08:00 Gamba Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol Analysis →