Kawasaki Frontale 5-3 Shimizu S-Pulse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.66
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.29
Over 2.5
63%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.6
No
35%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.56
2-3 Goals
35%
1.9
4-5 Goals
30%
2.77
6+ Goals
14%
7.56
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.17
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.2
X/1
13%
4.42
X/2
8%
9.25
X/X
6%
6.24
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.9
2/2
11%
6.61
2/X
8%
15.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.9 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
55%
-0.0pp
21%
Draw
22%
-1.5pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+1.6pp
37%
Under 2.5
40%
-3.3pp
63%
Over 2.5
60%
+3.3pp
65%
BTTS Yes
58%
+6.5pp
35%
BTTS No
42%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +15%
1.65/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.07
+24% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
525 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
16.9 Crosses 18.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kawasaki Frontale
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.75 xG 0.84
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
547 Passes 320
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
12.04.2025 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 HT 0-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
19.04.2023 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 6-0 HT 2-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JLK
08.03.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 3-2 HT 2-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JLK
08.10.2022 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 3-2 HT 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
07.05.2022 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-2 HT 0-2 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
24.10.2021 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 1-0 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kawasaki Frontale
5-3
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
1.61 xG 3.50
41% Ball Possession 59%
19 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
294 Passes 450
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
40 Box Touches 32
6 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-Pulse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kawasaki Frontale beat Shimizu S-Pulse 5-3. Half-time: 4-1. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kawasaki Frontale as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (65%) came in.

On the day, Kawasaki Frontale had 41% of the ball to Shimizu S-Pulse's 59%, shots finished 19-16, expected goals 1.61 to 3.50 — the balance of chances actually favoured Shimizu S-Pulse.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kawasaki Frontale had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Kawasaki Frontale and 1.00 for Shimizu S-Pulse.

What was the final score of Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Kawasaki Frontale 5-3 Shimizu S-Pulse in the Japan - J1 League on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Kawasaki Frontale 55%, draw 21%, Shimizu S-Pulse 24%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
18 Oct 2025
08:00 Yokohama F. Marinos vs Urawa Red Diamonds Analysis →
08:00 Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka Analysis →
08:00 Tokyo Verdy vs Albirex Niigata Analysis →
08:00 Yokohama FC vs Nagoya Grampus Analysis →
08:00 Gamba Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol Analysis →
08:00 Fagiano Okayama vs Cerezo Osaka Analysis →