Puebla 4-3 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.13
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.41
6+ Goals
9%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 28% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
38%
+2.0pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.7pp
31%
Away Win
35%
-3.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.0pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 38%
-5% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +2%
1.60/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.43
-1% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
334 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
21.7 Crosses 13.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Tijuana
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.41 xG 1.52
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
245 Passes 384
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2025 Puebla Puebla 2-0 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
11.11.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 2-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
20.04.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 3-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
02.09.2023 Puebla Puebla 3-0 HT 2-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
30.04.2023 Puebla Puebla 5-2 HT 2-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
13.08.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 3-3 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
4-3
AWAY Tijuana
1.77 xG 2.49
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
376 Passes 303
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puebla nicked a narrow win over Tijuana 4-3. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and on the day Puebla made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Puebla had 54% of the ball to Tijuana's 46%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.77 to 2.49 — the balance of chances actually favoured Tijuana.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Puebla and 1.67 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Tijuana?

Puebla 4-3 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puebla win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Puebla 40%, draw 29%, Tijuana 31%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Puebla), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Puebla) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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