Al Nassr 5-1 Al Fateh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
75%
1.16
Draw
14%
7.78
Away
11%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
3.94
Over 2.5
64%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
13.35
2-3 Goals
36%
2.98
4-5 Goals
30%
2.22
6+ Goals
16%
2.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
21%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
11%
2/2
5%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Al Nassr win — 75%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
75%
Home Win
82%
-6.5pp
14%
Draw
10%
+3.9pp
11%
Away Win
8%
+2.7pp
36%
Under 2.5
22%
+14.2pp
64%
Over 2.5
78%
-14.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.3pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Fateh EU Bookmakers 11%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +2%
2.37/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/2.37
+4% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -16%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
447 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 79%
34.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
23.3 Crosses 13.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nassr
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Al Fateh
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.84 xG 1.02
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
483 Passes 276
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
41 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2025 Al Fateh Al Fateh 3-2 HT 1-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
26.01.2025 Al Nassr Al Nassr 3-1 HT 1-0 Al Fateh Al Fateh SUUD
17.02.2024 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-1 HT 1-1 Al Fateh Al Fateh SUUD
25.08.2023 Al Fateh Al Fateh 0-5 HT 0-2 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
31.05.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 3-0 HT 1-0 Al Fateh Al Fateh SUUD
03.02.2023 Al Fateh Al Fateh 2-2 HT 1-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Nassr
5-1
AWAY Al Fateh
3.34 xG 1.41
58% Ball Possession 42%
23 Total Shots 10
12 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
301 Passes 207
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Nassr vs Al Fateh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr ran out comfortable winners over Al Fateh 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Nassr as the likeliest winner at 75%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Al Nassr had 58% of the ball to Al Fateh's 42%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 3.34 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Nassr had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Al Nassr and 1.17 for Al Fateh.

What was the final score of Al Nassr vs Al Fateh?

Al Nassr 5-1 Al Fateh in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nassr vs Al Fateh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 75%, with the full match-result split Al Nassr 75%, draw 14%, Al Fateh 11%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nassr), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
SUUD More Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League
18 Oct 2025
17:45 Al Ettifaq vs Al Hilal Riyadh Analysis →
18:15 Al Akhdoud vs Al Hazm Analysis →